Sir Keir Starmer must learn from both London and the West Midlands to secure his path to No10, writes Natasha Clark
4 May 2024, 23:47 | Updated: 5 May 2024, 6:25
Team Sadiq Khan has been warning Londoners for weeks that the Mayoral race would be much closer than we think.
He isn’t going to walk it after so long in office, they said.
‘Dangerous’ Susan Hall is closing the gap in the polls, we were warned.
But when murmurings on social media and messages whizzed around WhatsApp yesterday that it could be a shock win for the Tories, even they played it down.
Speculation that turned out to be almost as wild as the rumours the PM was going to call an election last week.
In the end the incumbent Labour Mayor increased his share of the vote, and secured a more than comfortable, historic win.
On the face of it, Khan was attempting to do something never done before – a third term as Mayor which even Ken Livingstone couldn’t pull off.
For an incumbent with eight years in office, the strong anti-Khan vote couldn’t be underestimated.
The Uxbridge by-election Tory squeak of a win, came as a surprise, a hint of the potential of the ULEZ row, and of the ability of drivers in the donut to cause an upset.
There are genuine concerns about crime in the capital, the speed of the Mayor’s green plans, and rows over spending and the night-time economy.
That combined with hateful racists who stir up division, meant they couldn’t afford to be complacent, even though Khan’s polling and personal ratings were holding up well.
Temptation will now be high after Labour’s knife-edge win in the West Midlands that the party are on course for a secure and comfortable win - and they are.
Worries over London will now be dismissed as just that.
It could even spook the Tory rebel plot to oust Rishi Sunak back into action.
But Labour should take a leaf out of London’s book and continue to refuse complacency.
Just 1,500 votes in a city of more than two million votes and the Tories would have used their two Mayoral wins to argue they can still cling on come the general election.
Former Labour MP Tom Watson admitted that the Lib Dems and Greens had lent Labour their votes in parts of the capital - a very frank admission of the part tactical voting had played under the new first past the post system.
Those same voters may be less likely to lend their votes to Labour in a general election – especially thanks to the boost they’ve got in last week’s locals.
A less than strong candidate in Susan Hall was another gift to the London campaign, and Labour won’t face the same weak calibre of candidates in the general.
Labour are now well on the road to power.
A win in the West Midlands will give him Sir Keir Starmer a spring in his step.
But the party must learn from both the West Midlands and London to seal the keys to Downing Street.